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About the CenterPulse of projectsTheory of "postindustrial society" as a "strategic trap" for Russia
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Pulse of projects
When D.Bell in the 1950s began to develop the concept of "postindustrial society", it seemed lacking some foundation. West experienced another industrial growth. Arms race conditioned priority of the military-industrial complex development, directly connected with the corresponding industries.
Bell's futurological projection onto production phase-out did not result from existed economic trends, and restructuring of Western economy took place after emergence of post-industrialism concept. It is unlikely that Bell could so accurately predict the future, especially as prognostic potential of post-industrial theory is low. Therefore, the concept of "new" society might well have nature of the project.
Post-industrialism and neo-colonialism emerged virtually simultaneously. After nomination of post-industrial concept in the United States began an active process of real industrial production output in to Third World countries. This was necessary not only in terms of profitability (cheap labor), but also in geo-economic sense: by withdrawal of the industry to the Third World, the West provided its new binding to neo-metropolis of “the gold billion”. It was not only economic binding, but also financial, through international dollar lending, including specified – IMF system.
Emergence of this concept coincided with change in power balance in world historical race between the USSR and the USA. The Soviet Union since the early industrial breakthrough consistently caught up the United States in terms of total volume of industrial production. By the early 1960s the gap was minimal. Preserving existed at that time trends meant that the Soviet Union in a decade was to circumvent the United States. But the situation changed, which coincided with injection in global information space theory of postindustrial development. Industrial growth in the U.S. continued to increase, whereas in the USSR (RSFSR) started deceleration of industrial capacities. In post-Soviet Russia industrial growth even acquired negative values. United States, meanwhile, continued to increase volume of industrial production. (Pic.1).
(1).jpg) Pic.1 Not all countries, like Russia, have adopted the ideals of post-industrialism. Moreover, one of the geo-economic challenges of our time is the phenomenon of "neo-industrial countries". Several countries, primarily peripheral, have chosen not service development, but the strategy of accelerated industrial growth, confessed by the Soviet Union (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong). Russia during its economic reforms abandoned this. (Pic.2).
.jpg) Pic.2
Collapse of the USSR coincided chronologically with activation of process of service transformation. Service defeated production. Back in 1990 share of industrial production in Russia's GDP almost twice exceeded share of services. In less than two years, all fundamentally changed: in 1992 share of services was higher. In two years share of commodity production decreased by 14.3%. It is interesting that proportion of service again reached its maximum in 1998 - at the time of default. (Pic.3).
(1).jpg) Pic.3 Of course, post-industrialism theory contains some elements of reliable description of the processes, enables us to construct separate projections of the future. But if the theory does not describe all available empirical data, it must be either improved, or discarded as invalid.
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