Russian political practices

February 2008

Contents

Foreign policy ………………………………………………………………................................4

Kosovo …………………………………………………………………………………………...4

Russia-Ukraine…………………………………………………………………………………….8

India……………………………………………………………………………………………...12

Pakistan…………………………………………………………………………………………..15

Home Policy……………………………………………………………………………………..18

“Thaw” in the land of permafrost: looks like an anomaly………………………………………........18

“Death of the Empire”: the unlearned lessons………………………………………………….........20

The judge inside the elite: no way to stay, no way to go……………………………………….........22

New appointments in the administration………………………………………………………........26

In this issue:

• The apparent serenity of Russian administration that seems to have reconciled to the independence of Kosovo should not mislead the observers. Without going into diplomatic hysterics unworthy of the great power, Moscow with quiet and moral certitude is watching Europe and USA commit another, probably fatal, mistake.

• Russia and Ukraine made correct conclusions from the contradictory experience of their past relations. And, if Moscow showed the understanding that, in the arguments with neighbors, even acting from, apposition of force, one has to give to the weaker party the possibility to “save face”, Kiev in its turn showed the willingness to listen to the reasons of common sense and to accept with dignity the “offers impossible to refuse”.

• The negative trends in Russia defense industry that were manifested in the failure of a series of strategically important foreign contracts may lead in the mid-term perspective to a decline in Russia military supplies as a whole, the experts suggest. One has the impression that the Russia military complex is no longer capable of satisfying the minimal quality and time requirements.

• In spite of the significant economic growth and restoration of once lost international positions of Russia, one has the impression that the traditional balance in the mutual relations of Moscow and Deli is changing, and the Indian political elite is willing to decisively give up the role of  “the follower”. India is moving at accelerated pace to the category of the countries that are interested in Russia only as a supplier of raw materials. Results of Zubkov’s visit confirmed this impression once again.

• The parliamentary elections held in Pakistan had at least two unexpected outcomes. The first one is the very modest results of islamist-oriented parties. The second onу is the impressive victory of the lay opposition. However it is too early to speak about political stability in Pakistan.

• The whole of 2007 year the observers were discussing and guessing the candidature of Putin’s successor. But even now, when this question has been settled, the degree of indeterminacy and the “zone of political risk” did not decrease, but, rather, got a new dimension. The question on the agenda is: what will the dualist model of the executive power in Russia look like after the presidential elections, will it last, and how long will take the period of transition.

• The sharp political discussion around the documentary “The death of Empire: lesson of Byzantium” showed that not only the contents of the movie, but also the circumstances of its broadcasting were somewhat significant for the audience.

• In the situation of non-terminating and even aggravating opposition between elite groups around the possible scenarios of the course of events after March 2008 the more and more convincing is the variant when none of the major forces will get decisive advantages in the result of the power change in Kremlin. Thus the current system of  “restraints and counterweights”, whose key element used to be Vladimir Putin, in its basic features, will persist.

• From the moment of publicizing of the strategy for the country development till 2020, the whole electoral company, in essence, again is getting the traits of “the referendum for Putin”. Vladimir Putin is coming to the front, now in a principally new capacity: not as a leader of the list of one of the parties, and not even as a political partner and a guide of the future head of the state. He is retaking the role of an independent and self-sufficient figure, a center of attraction in the political space of the country.

• The major wave of appointments and structural reorganizations is expected to take place in the spring, closer to the moment of inauguration of the new president. However, some indirect evidence, first of all on the level of the public apparatus, indicates a gradual increase in the weight of the executive power to the detriment of the president.